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会議 |
26TH PAN PACIFIC CONGRESS OF REAL ESTATE APPRAISERS, VALUERS AND COUNSELLORS |
| 日程 |
1-4 OCTOBER 2012 |
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THURSDAY 4 OCTOBER 2012 11:00am-11:30am |
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スピーカー |
不動産鑑定士・MRICS・CIIA 山口 和範 （略歴） |
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会場 |
MELBOURNE CONVENTION AND EXHIBITION CENTRE |
| 講演内容  |
Abstract It has been over twenty years since the Japanese property bubble burst. In the USA, the housing bubble that was caused by subprime mortgages exploded in 2006. In Europe as well, especially in the UK, Ireland, and Spain, housing prices reached their peak in 2007–2008. Where the housing bubbles burst in these developed countries, whether by coincidence or inevitability, the percentage of the working age population (15–64 years old/WAP) peaked at the same time. In this paper, by using the UN 2010 World Population Prospects, I test interval estimation for the coincidence of the year that the WAP percentage peaks and the housing bubble explodes. Next, I employ regression analysis using the rate of change in housing prices and the rate of change in the WAP and find that before the Lehman collapse the correlation of these two quantities was statistically significant, whereas post-Lehman, it is not in general. However, the data for each country in each year show that the correlations are statistically significant in most of the countries whose housing prices rose dramatically. For the WAP-decreasing countries, a rise in housing prices will happen only with local population density or printing more money in the future. |
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